Today, climate crisis issues are increasingly discussed among Indonesians. A UNDP survey found that 60% of Indonesians are now more worried about the impacts of the climate crisis, while 86% want the government to take stronger action to address it.
For many Indonesians, this is not just a theory but a reality they already experience. Data from the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) shows a rising trend in hydrometeorological disasters like floods and landslides. Extreme temperatures and unpredictable seasons are no longer anomalies. They mark that Indonesia is on the front line of the climate crisis.
What Is Climate Change?
Climate change refers to long-term changes in temperature and weather patterns on Earth. Although it can occur naturally through factors such as solar cycles, since the 19th century the main cause has shifted to human activities, including the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas that increase greenhouse gas emissions.
Real Impacts: From Water Crisis to Crop Failures
Climate change is hitting the core of Indonesia’s resilience, affecting food, energy, health, and the economy.
Food Security
Longer dry seasons and extreme floods damage farmland and threaten national food production. Crop failures not only cause economic losses but also reduce nutrition availability and heighten food insecurity, especially for small farmers.
A CERAH study (2022) led by Prof. Edvin Aldrian from BRIN, BMKG, and IPB predicts that rice and coffee production in Indonesia will decline due to climate change. Rising sea levels could flood coastal farmlands, reducing national rice output by around 3.5 million tons, equal to the annual food needs of 26.6 million people. Coffee yields are also expected to drop by 10% during El Niño and up to 80% during La Niña.
Energy Security
Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, melting glaciers, and more frequent extreme weather events caused by climate change are major challenges for hydropower generation in South and Southeast Asia. These shifts make river flows unstable, change seasonal water cycles, and increase water evaporation from reservoirs.
Extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and landslides can also disrupt the development of new hydropower projects.
Public Health
Climate change, together with natural and human-made stressors, affects human health in many ways. Some existing health threats will worsen, and new ones may appear. Vulnerability levels depend on age, economic conditions, and where people live.
In the United States, public health has already been affected by disruptions in physical, biological, and ecological systems. These include higher rates of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, injuries and premature deaths due to extreme weather, the spread of food- and water-borne illnesses, new infectious diseases in previously unaffected regions, and growing mental health challenges.
Economic Resilience
Indonesia’s GDP per capita is estimated to have already fallen by around 15% compared to what it could have been without climate change. As a result, Indonesia is at risk of being one of the countries most affected economically by the climate crisis.
Some studies project that economic losses could reach 30–40% of total GDP by 2050, and up to 80% by 2100 if emissions continue to rise. High emissions could also cause Indonesia’s international credit rating to drop by about four points, increasing borrowing costs by around USD 1 billion per year.
Climate Adaptation: Has Indonesia Done Enough?
The Indonesian government has introduced several adaptation strategies, including early warning systems, Climate Field Schools to help farmers respond to weather changes, and an energy transition roadmap outlined in the national electricity plan (RUPTL).
However, the 2025–2034 RUPTL still includes plans to add 6.3 GW of coal power and 10.3 GW of gas power, claiming it is necessary to support electricity needs during the transition. In reality, this ongoing reliance on fossil fuels could slow down renewable energy adoption for communities still adapting to the transition.
On September 15, 2025, President Prabowo Subianto signed Government Regulation No. 40/2025 on the National Energy Policy (KEN), replacing the previous policy that had been in place for over a decade.
The Promise and Reality of KEN 2025
At first glance, KEN 2025 seems ambitious in promoting the transition to renewable energy by 2060. For example, the policy targets solar energy to reach 2.8% of the national energy mix by 2030, and 32% by 2060. Meanwhile, coal use is expected to drop to 41.6% by 2030 and 7.8% by 2060.
But a closer look reveals that the approach remains similar to previous energy policies. Fossil fuel subsidies continue, and several provisions could even slow down renewable energy growth in Indonesia.
Without bold policy reforms to phase out fossil fuels, Indonesia’s clean energy transition goals will remain difficult to achieve. KEN 2025 risks becoming a repetition of outdated energy management practices that favor fossil fuels over renewables.
Linking Climate Change and Energy Transition
Given the worsening impacts of climate change in Indonesia, from crop failures and water shortages to health risks and economic losses, it is time to move beyond fossil fuel dependency.
The new National Energy Policy (KEN) should not just be a planning document but a real step toward a clean and sustainable energy transition.
Redirecting Subsidies and Empowering Communities
Fossil fuel subsidies need to be redirected toward renewable energy sectors such as solar, wind, and hydropower. The government should also encourage energy democratization, giving communities the freedom and support to produce and use clean energy independently.
This can include installing solar panels at home and promoting eco-friendly public transportation in cities and rural areas alike.
A Fair and Sustainable Future
The energy transition is not just about technology but about justice and sustainability. With policies that support clean energy, Indonesia can reduce the impacts of climate change while building a stronger, healthier, and more equitable economy for both present and future generations.
